What’s behind some Southeast Asia countries’ push to join BRICS and will Trump’s win be a catalyst?

WHO COULD BE NEXT TO JOIN BRICS? 

In line with that, the analysts whom CNA spoke to said that they see several other Southeast Asian nations who can potentially throw their hats into the ring to be a part of the BRICS bloc – namely Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos.

“The next three Southeast Asian contenders for BRICS partnership are Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos. All three countries have close ties with both Russia and China and seek financial assistance from the BRICS bank,” said Dr Ian Storey, referring to the NDB. 

Mr Jamil said that Myanmar has officially applied for BRICS membership, seeing the bloc as a platform to mitigate the impact of international sanctions and seek economic diversification beyond its dependence on China.

But he warned that the country – which has been besieged by a civil war since 2021 – may have difficulties gaining entry into the bloc.

“Myanmar’s internal political situation and strained international standing may present challenges to its admission,” said Mr Jamil.

Agreeing, Dr Chong posited that Myanmar is a “very weak candidate” to join BRICS. 

“If they join, it’s because they want some kind of de facto geo-economic or geopolitical alliance. I use the word ‘alliance’ very loosely because this is the closest thing to protecting itself against a Western … intervention in relation to the ongoing civil war in the country. 

“I would think that the calculation (in Myanmar’s capital) is that Russia and China will definitely provide loud support for the current regime in Myanmar should they join BRICS,” he said. 

On whether Laos and Cambodia could potentially join BRICS, Dr Chong believes that the two countries may eventually do so out of support for superpower China. 

“I suspect it is to support their patron or ally – China. I don’t think Cambodia or Laos can actually provide leadership for BRICS. They might start with observer status, because they are basically enjoying Chinese economic largesse. 

“China has built so many infrastructure projects for them. So, they do owe China some degree of support,” said Dr Chong. 

UNLIKELY FOR SINGAPORE, PHILIPPINES & BRUNEI TO JOIN

Among the remaining Southeast Asian countries – namely Singapore, Brunei and the Phillipines – the chances of them joining BRICS are low, say analysts.

This is because of these countries’ economic and foreign policies as well as their partnerships with Western powers. 

“Singapore values its role as a global financial hub and maintains a strict policy of neutrality in international relations,” Mr Jamil told CNA, adding that the country’s integration into Western markets and reliance on balanced foreign relations have made it “unlikely” to join a bloc that would make it seem that it is aligning itself more with China or Russia. 

“Joining BRICS would disrupt its strategic flexibility and potentially complicate existing relationships,” he said.

Of note, Singapore also had previously unilaterally imposed economic sanctions on Russia for the latter’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Meanwhile, the Philippines has strong economic and security ties with Washington, making it unlikely to risk jeopardising those relations by joining BRICS.

“Americans see the Philippines as an outstanding ally, on the same level with South Korea and Japan and the US is likely to share some of the high technology investments with the Philippines,” says RSIS’ Dr Chong.