Then there’s religion. If minorities’ numbers have increased “too much”, there would be an outcry from the right-wing; if they haven’t, it becomes harder for politicians to tell Hindus that they are in demographic danger.
Meanwhile, this census was also supposed to be the first step toward creating a National Register of Citizens – a plan which, together with changes to citizenship law, caused huge nationwide protests in 2019 because of fears it could render many Indian Muslims stateless. Nobody is eager to start up that argument again.
Even more potentially problematic are the numbers for language groups and state origins. India is a country of two halves: One with a rapidly growing population, and the other ageing just as rapidly.
By 2041, according to government estimates, the northern state of Bihar will have added 50 million people to its strength of 104 million in the 2011 Census. The southern state of Tamil Nadu, meanwhile, will have begun to shrink. Worse, the shrinking states are mostly ruled by strong regional parties, don’t speak the same language as the north, and are much richer.
New population numbers may mean that these states’ share of seats in the national parliament will decline, leaving them with little voice in New Delhi’s decisions. Inter-regional transfers in India, already high, will increase. One state finance minister has complained that sending local taxes north is “like throwing money down the well.”
Source: CNA
