Commentary: Gibran’s VP run may be the biggest gamble for Prabowo – and outgoing Indonesian President Jokowi

Mr Jokowi’s camp appears to acknowledge this: PSI recently launched an assertive “Jokowi-ism” campaign, prominently featuring the names and faces of Mr Widodo, party chairman Mr Pangarep and occasionally Mr Raka. This underscores their efforts to harness the patriarch’s popularity and translate it into electoral support.

A SIDELINED VICE PRESIDENT?

Even if the pair overcome these challenges during the campaign, they will face more in governance. Will the influential PDI-P back Mr Subianto’s coalition in his agenda?

It’s also conceivable that Mr Subianto could also sideline Mr Raka as vice president – a position with no significant constitutional powers until delegated by the president – if this was a mere marriage of convenience.

His current alignment with Mr Jokowi could be seen as one: Mr Subianto was appointed defence minister after his 2019 defeat, in a move framed as a means to foster national unity after a divisive election that saw protests against the results turn deadly.

Mr Jokowi could end up with little influence, especially if the PSI, the party led by his youngest son, fails to secure seats in the House of Representatives. PSI currently has no parliamentary representation, having received only 1.89 per cent of the total national vote in 2019, short of the 4 per cent threshold for parliamentary seat allocation.

The rift between Mr Jokowi and PDI-P, the political party that initially propelled him, his son, and his son-in-law to their current positions, might also widen irretrievably.

The choice of Mr Raka as running mate and potential vice president might end up a significant gamble for both Mr Subianto and Mr Jokowi.

Made Supriatma is Visiting Fellow, Indonesia Studies Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.