LITTLE LOVE FOR MYANMAR’S MILITARY GENERALS
Since the February 2021 coup, the junta has imprisoned nearly 20,000 people and caused nearly 1 million people to be internally displaced. The junta’s four-cuts strategy to stifle opposition terrorises the civilian population. To maintain power, the junta has unleashed its air force to strike against civilian targets, so there is little love for the generals.
Furthermore, the rebel’s rapid success in capturing several Tatmadaw outposts has enabled them to access additional weapons and ammunition. The latest pictures and videos from social media indicate that rebel forces have also captured armoured vehicles and artillery pieces. These could be turned against the Tatmadaw in future offensives.
And the rebel forces have the initiative on the battlefield. The Tatmadaw has been forced to give up numerous positions and retreat across multiple fronts. Having the initiative is critical – military theory argues that freedom of action forces the enemy to conform to one’s objective and pace.
But theory can wilt when confronted by reality. Can the Tatmadaw regain the initiative to organise an effective defence, followed by counterattacks to recapture lost territory? For now, this seems an impossible task.
The Tatmadaw appears overstretched. Besides engaging the rebels, the junta has to contend with anti-junta forces in areas under its control, demonstrated by the reported assassination of one of the junta’s cronies in Yangon.
A recent study estimated the strength of the Tatmadaw to be about 150,000 personnel, with 70,000 of them in combat units. To put the figures into context, the United States deployed nearly half a million troops in Vietnam at the height of the Vietnam War.
Even allowing that the two conflicts are not perfect historical comparisons, it helps to illustrate the scale of the junta’s challenge. Considering that Myanmar is geographically larger than Vietnam and dotted by thick jungles and mountains, the Tatmadaw is struggling against a simultaneous fight against rebel forces throughout the country.
Source: CNA
