Malaysia state polls: Opposition set to make inroads, could trigger more political instability, say observers

If PH-BN retains control of the three states but loses the Malay vote, Prof Chin said Mr Anwar will shed political credibility and find it difficult to introduce his economic reforms, as he will have to pander to pro-Malay policies.

These include compulsory Bumiputera shareholding and tenders reserved for Bumiputera companies, he said, adding that these “affirmative action” policies need to be reformed as they have a huge impact on the Malaysian economy. 

“Anwar will adopt a lot more pro-Islamic, pro-Malay policies to placate supporters who (shifted to) PN,” he said, although he warned that an outwardly pro-Malay stance could risk “alienating” the core, non-Malay base of PH supporters.

Dr Wong Chin Huat from Sunway University used GE15 results as well as assumptions on vote transferability and voter turnout to predict that PH-BN and PN will retain control of the states they currently govern, but with the latter winning more seats.

And if this happens, “the government will be pressured to move to the right”, he said, referring similarly to the introduction of more conservative, pro-Malay policies.

For example, if UMNO suffers a “disastrous defeat”, Dr Wong suggested that PN will claim that the Malays rejected UMNO because of DAP.

“To shed off this accusation, UMNO will try to secure concessions by the unity government to the Malays and Islam. This can come in the form of resource allocation or value imposition,” he said, referring to things like funding for Malay institutions and the enforcement of Islamic values in public life.

PH-BN DEFEAT IN SELANGOR UNLIKELY

Dr Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, painted a more dire picture for PH-BN.

He predicted that the alliance will lose its two-thirds majority in Penang and Negeri Sembilan, while Selangor remains a “toss-up”.

Dr Oh believes that BN voters will flock to PN as they fear PH’s liberal and multicultural outlook while PN’s consistent race-and-religion campaign narratives also tap into the increasing Malay fear of losing racial and religious primacy in the country.

“Economy or corruption takes a decidedly backseat to these more amorphous concerns,” he added, noting that PN’s “green wave” – referring to its growing popularity among Malay voters – remains “strong and kicking”.