Singapore’s next General Election likely in 2024, say analysts after PM Lee reveals handover plan

SINGAPORE: Singapore can expect its next General Election (GE) to be called in 2024, political analysts told CNA after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced on Sunday (Nov 5) his timeline for handing over leadership to Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.

While the analysts were not surprised by Mr Lee’s transition plans, they said the election timeline has been moved up due to his intention to pass the baton to Mr Wong before the next GE and by Nov 21 next year – the 70th anniversary of the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).

This is “if all goes well”, said Mr Lee, who added that there was no reason to delay the transition any longer.

Singapore’s next GE has to be called by November 2025.

Mr Lee had previously expressed hopes of stepping down before his 70th birthday in February 2022. This plan was disrupted by the pandemic.

“After (handing over), I will be at the new PM’s disposal. I will go wherever he thinks I can be useful. I will do my best to help him fight and win the next GE,” said Mr Lee on Sunday. He was addressing more than 1,000 party members at the biennial PAP awards and convention.

Dr Felix Tan from Nanyang Technological University (NTU) noted that Sunday’s announcement was “overdue” given how Mr Lee had been talking about handing over to the next generation of leaders for several years now.

“By saying that he would love to hand over before next November – it’s a kind of an implicit way of telling Singaporeans, and also the 4G (fourth-generation) leaders, that probably there will be an election much earlier or at least in 2024,” Dr Tan said. 

“We should expect an election by next year. When? I wouldn’t want to put a figure on that yet.”

Ms Nydia Ngiow, managing director of public policy consultancy BowerGroupAsia, also pointed to earlier “widespread speculation” over when the leadership transition would take place, especially given the lack of clarity before Mr Lee’s announcement on Sunday.

If PM Lee had chosen to stay on till the next GE is called, it could be misconstrued as a lack of confidence in Mr Wong and other 4G leaders, she said.

“Handing over the premiership before the GE should be viewed as PM’s expression of confidence in the 4G leaders, especially when there appears to be little opportunity going forward for the 4G leaders to show their mettle,” Ms Ngiow added.

“That said, it could be argued that if he was truly confident in the 4G, he could have handed over the national security portfolio – defence, home affairs, foreign affairs – to them earlier, rather than have it still be run by 3G ministers.”