Taiwan Votes 2024: A hung parliament could emerge for the first time since 2008, and why it matters

TIPPING THE BALANCE OF POWER

While the TPP is expected to work both sides of the aisle in a hung parliament scenario, Dr Liao said that on cross-strait issues, the party could be more aligned with the KMT, which favours closer ties with China. This may not be the case for domestic issues.

As a first step, the TPP is likely to support the KMT’s choice of speaker of parliament, paving the way for further cooperation. 

But the TPP’s Dr Ko is no pushover, and will want to preserve his political future and the viability of his party, she said. 

“I believe the TPP’s ability to work both sides is very strong, and both parties (DPP and KMT) will need to work to win it over,” she said. 

This may lead to more raucous parliamentary sessions, but is not necessarily a bad thing, she added.

“As political scientists we consider this a good thing, because there is more compromise, more negotiation, more diverse opinions being considered, and this can make the coverage of policies more well-rounded.”

DPP PRESIDENCY WITH KMT MAJORITY

A hung parliament is not the only possible scenario – a KMT majority in the legislature is the other most likely outcome, according to Taiwan observers at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event in December.

Opinion polls predict that if the KMT performs well in the legislative election, it could gain as many as more than 60 seats, giving it the majority, said Dr Liao.

If this scenario comes to pass, it will harken back to the situation under the DPP’s President Chen Shui-bian from 2000 to 2008. 

The then-Speaker Wang Jin-pying of the KMT managed to achieve a measure of harmony and stability in the legislature through his skill in negotiation and consensus-building, said Dr Wang.

If the presidency and legislature are held by opposing parties again, Dr Wang said he believes the KMT’s opposition to the DPP will be stronger than under Mr Wang, and clashes will be more intense after this election.

Taiwan requires any constitutional amendment to be passed by at least three-fourths of legislators present, with a quorum of at least three-fourths of the Legislative Yuan. More than half of eligible voters must then endorse the amendment in a national referendum.

This means that any constitutional amendment is likely to require bipartisan support. And even after clearing the legislative bar, amendments can stumble in the referendum. 

In 2022, lawmakers voted 109-0 in favour of a bill to lower the voting age from 20 to 18, but voters rejected the proposal.