THE END OF OIL-FOR-SECURITY?
Two long-term shifts add to the challenges facing Blinken.
First, the long-standing pillar of US-Saudi relations, the US provision of security in return for steady supplies of Saudi oil, has withered.
The United States – now the world’s top oil producer – is no longer as dependent on Saudi crude as it was in the 1970s.
“Both sides of the equation – preferred access to Saudi energy and US defence of Saudi Arabia against foreign challenges – seem to be gone,” said Chas Freeman, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia.
Second, the rise of China, now the biggest buyer of Saudi oil and largest source of Saudi imports, as well as the so-called US “pivot” to Asia, have led Riyadh to hedge its geopolitical bets.
“In the Cold War, the US could pretty much count on the Saudis to back its big strategic initiatives. When the Cold War ended, the Saudis didn’t have much choice,” said Texas A & M professor Gregory Gause.
“Now they have choices,” he added. “The period of American unipolarity is basically over and the Saudis understand that and they are seeing other options.”
In one sign of evolving allegiances, Saudi Arabia and Iran said in March that they planned to re-establish diplomatic relations after undisclosed talks in Beijing.
NORMAL ISRAEL RELATIONS UNLIKELY
However strained, a true rupture in ties is unlikely because Riyadh needs the US military to ensure the flow of oil from the Gulf – a role neither China nor Russia, which has expanded its influence in the region, seem prepared to play – and Washington wants Riyadh to moderate world oil prices.
Still, the US is unlikely to achieve one goal any time soon: Convincing Riyadh to follow the 2020 move by Arab nations including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to normalise relations with Israel under the so-called Abraham Accords.
On Wednesday, the top US diplomat for the Middle East, Barbara Leaf, dismissed as “hyperventilation” reports in the Israeli press about the possibility.
She said that the Saudi crown prince had other priorities – notably his Vision 2030 plan to modernise Saudi Arabia’s economy and reduce its dependence on oil – and that smaller steps like sports exchanges could improve ties with Israel.
“That’s going to be the hard one,” said a Gulf official on condition of anonymity, suggesting that normalisation was unlikely while Saudi King Salman was alive and right-wing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in power.
Source: CNA
